Trump’s second term: What it means for Brazil and Lula

São Paulo, Brazil – The return of Donald Trump to the White House was not the scenario President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had likely hoped for. On the eve of the U.S. elections, Lula voiced his preference for the Democratic contender, Vice President Kamala Harris, in an interview with French broadcaster TF1.

“As a lover of democracy, which I believe is the most sacred tool humanity has devised to govern itself, I naturally root for Kamala Harris to win the elections,” the Brazilian president declared.

Yet, the outcome was different. Trump emerged victorious and, come January 20, 2025, will once again lead the world’s most powerful nation, four years after leaving office shrouded in criticism, including from his response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the January 6, 2021 attacks from his supporters on the U.S. Capitol.

In Brazil, he will face a different government to those which he experienced in his first term, which were more sympathetic to his right-wing, nationalist style of politics.

In Trump’s first term, he dealt with conservative leaders Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro.

Relations with Temer were polite but limited in engagement. In September 2017, just ahead of the UN General Assembly, Trump hosted a dinner for Latin American leaders in New York, with Temer attending – one of their few interactions.

With Bolsonaro, however, Trump developed a friendship. In March 2019, Bolsonaro made an official visit to the White House. The following year, they met again at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, where Trump described Bolsonaro as “a great friend” and remarked, “It is a great honor to have the president of Brazil with us. He is an extraordinary man, doing an excellent job. Our relationship has never been closer.”

Even out of office, their contact persisted, with a notable reunion in March 2023 at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, D.C.

Bolsonaro left office, of course, much like Trump. Defeated in an election and with his supporters storming the government headquarters to protest the election result. Both he and Trump have subsequently faced multiple criminal investigations.

Far from his buddy-buddy relationship with Bolsonaro, it is expected that Trump’s relationship with Lula will be strained, due mostly to their ideological differences. Despite this, Brazil remains a robust trading partner for the US. In 2023, bilateral trade between the nations totaled $75 billion.

Lula’s initial response to Trump’s election indicated openness to dialogue. In a post on X, he congratulated him on his win and his return to the U.S. presidency, emphasizing that democracy reflects the people’s will and wishing the incoming administration success.

Read more: How Latin American leaders are reacting to Donald Trump’s victory

In an interview with Brazil Reports, Leandro Loureiro, a professor of International Relations at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said that the relationship between Lula and Trump should be marked by objectivity, with them prioritizing issues of common interest to both countries.

“Lula will likely avoid direct confrontations and prioritize cooperative agreements on shared issues. Conversely, Trump’s approach toward Lula may also be results-oriented, seeking favorable deals. Both leaders are likely to place economic interests above political and ideological differences. Environmental issues may emerge as the primary source of tension,” Loureiro explained.

Dawisson Belém Lopes, a professor of International Politics at the Federal University of Minas Gerais, emphatically told Brazil Reports that Lula and Trump have very different personalities, which can be an obstacle to building bridges.

“They defend a set of perspectives, of visions that are diametrically opposed, starting with the reading that one and the other have of multilateralism, international institutions, international law, the use of force, the question of Palestine and, I think, above all, the status of democracy. Today I don’t see any clear areas of convergence. It will have to be built with skill by the diplomatic corps of the two countries.”

The professor als said that bilateral relations between Brazil and the U.S. have flourished with Lula and President Joe Biden at the helm. The two leaders forged a collaborative agenda encompassing democratic institution strengthening, environmental preservation, combating misinformation, and workers’ rights – a partnership that, according to Lopes, “strongly connected Lula to Biden.”

Fernando Brancoli, an International Security and Geopolitics professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, told Brazil Reports that Lula has expressed the intention to maintain a “civilized relationship” with Trump, underscoring the importance of dialogue and mutual cooperation. Despite their ideological divides, a pragmatic approach centered on economic and commercial interests is expected, Loureiro suggested.

The experts also highlighted how Trump might respond to China’s growing influence in Latin America. Loureiro explained that China’s increased presence in the region is an issue close to the US’s heart. According to him, “Trump will probably try to adopt a posture of containment, encouraging bilateral agreements that reduce the dependence of Latin American countries on China, reinforcing the narrative that these ties with Beijing represent risks to security and sovereignty.”

Brancoli also believes Donald Trump will have to use bilateral agreements to try to contain China’s presence in the region.

“During his first term, Trump adopted a confrontational stance towards China, implementing tariffs and trade restrictions. It is plausible that in his second term he will seek to contain Chinese influence in the region, possibly by offering investment alternatives and strengthening trade ties with Latin American countries,” he said.

Belém Lopes pointed out that Latin America’s growing ties with China stem from the region’s historical marginalization in U.S. foreign policy. For him, “the U.S. has often overlooked Latin America, with issues only surfacing during presidential campaigns in a criminalized lens, focusing on illegal immigration and drug trafficking.”

Meanwhile, China has solidified its position as the region’s top trading partner, signing its first free-trade agreement with Chile in 2006, followed by similar pacts with Peru, Nicaragua, and Ecuador. Uruguay and Panama have also initiated talks for their agreements.

On November 14, Chinese President Xi Jinping was in Peru, where he inaugurated the latest piece of infrastructure built by his country in the region, the Chancay megaport, a US$1.3 billion project.

The terminal, located north of Lima, is expected to become a transshipment hub opening up a new connection route between South America and Asia, speeding up trade across the Pacific Ocean.

“This kind of mobilization was necessary for the United States to wake up from its deep sleep and start trying to contain the Chinese. A very clear example of this was 5G telephony, the way in which the United States tried in every way to dissuade Brazil from accepting the presence of Huawei, the Chinese company in Brazilian territory, which is an issue that has to do with medium and long-term strategy,” said Lopes.

Loureiro cautioned that Trump’s protectionist stance could further amplify China’s presence in the region, potentially benefiting agro-exporting countries while offering new market opportunities for Beijing.

“Regarding the promise to expand tariffs to between 10% and 20% on practically all imports, this could have some consequences for the region’s agro-exporting countries, but it could open up even more space for the Chinese market,” Loureiro said.

As China continues to deepen its ties across Latin America during Trump’s absence from office, it remains to be seen how he will counterbalance this influence in his return.

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