Bogotá, Colombia – Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, two of the frontrunners to be the next Colombian president, have announced their choices for vice president following Sunday’s legislative elections and presidential primaries.
Cepeda selected Aida Quilcué, a senator and Indigenous leader, to join him on the ticket for the left-wing Historic Pact (Pacto Historico), which won the most congressional seats on Sunday. Meanwhile, de la Espriella, a hard-right outsider, announced today that he will run alongside ex-finance minister José Manuel Restrepo.
But the big winner in Sunday’s primary, right-wing Paloma Valencia of the Democratic Center (Centro Democrático) party, has yet to announce her running mate amid mounting speculation.
Cepeda sticks to his guns
On Monday, Cepeda formally announced Aida Quilcué as his running mate. A leader of the Nasa Indigenous group, Quilcué has a record as a staunch defender of human rights and as an advocate for ethnic minorities in Colombia.
She was integral to the negotiation of the ethnic chapter of the 2016 peace accord with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and has been a key figure in Colombia’s Indigenous rights movement.
Last month, Quilcué made national headlines when she was kidnapped in her home state of Cauca, in the Colombian Pacific, by dissidents of the FARC.
Miguel Jaramillo Luján, a Colombian political strategist, described Cepeda’s choice of Quilcué as a “symbolic” one which entrenches his stance as an advocate of peace and human rights.
But the analyst also noted that the selection may not be the most politically savvy move: “From an electoral standpoint, I believe that this is a concentric circle and does not add much electoral power to Iván Cepeda, who I think is acting symbolically but overly prideful in this decision,” Jaramillo told Latin America Reports.
De la Espriella’s establishment pick
Abelardo de la Espriella, a criminal defense attorney, has styled himself as an anti-establishment political outsider. His traditional values, tough on crime campaign has been successful so far, regularly placing him in second place in presidential polls.
Today, ‘The Tiger’, as he has styled himself, announced his running mate: José Manuel Restrepo.
Restrepo is an economist at the Rosario University in Bogotá and served as President Ivan Duque’s Minister of Finance and Public Credit from May 2021 to August 2022, running the country’s finances during the COVID-19 pandemic. Before that he was Minister of Commerce, Industry, and Tourism beginning in 2018.
“I think the selection of José Manuel Restrepo… represents an attempt to counterbalance de la Espriella, who has no experience in public office,” said Jaramillo.
While de la Espriella is an outsider, he must take on Cepeda and Valencia, both sitting senators since 2014. Restrepo burnishes the criminal lawyer’s bid by adding proven governance credentials.
When announcing his running mate on Tuesday, de la Espriella said: “My choice of vice president was not driven by political calculation… it was clear to me that a renowned academic, an outstanding economist, and a highly qualified former minister and technician will undoubtedly be the best travel companion.”
Paloma Valencia in the spotlight
On Sunday, Paloma Valencia received over 45% of votes in presidential primaries, although Cepeda and de la Espriella were both absent from the contest.
Valencia’s win, as well as her Democratic Center party’s strong showing in legislative elections – winning the second highest number of seats – bolsters her position in the presidential race, according to experts.
“From the [primaries], it’s clear that Paloma Valencia is the right-wing’s principal candidate,” Sergio Guzmán, director at Colombia Risk Analysis, a political risk consultancy, told Latin America Reports.
Before Sunday’s vote, de la Espriella had been dominating conservative polls. Now, it is unclear which conservative candidate will attract the most voters in May’s election.
Whoever emerges as the winner must face off with Cepeda and will be under pressure to win over centrist Colombians, said Guzman.
One way to achieve this is by selecting running mates with a broader appeal.
Sunday’s primaries highlighted the widespread popularity of Juan Daniel Oviedo, who was on the same list as Valencia and won 17% of the total votes. The former director of the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), Oviedo is considered center-right and notably more moderate than Valencia.
Valencia is under mounting public pressure to pick Oviedo as her running mate, according to Jaramillo, but the two differ on key issues and Oviedo has specified strict conditions for joining Valencia’s ticket.
“We openly show fundamental differences. For example, I believe in peace,” Oviedo told Colombian radio station Caracol on Monday. “You cannot take positions that do not recognize that the [2016 peace] agreement must be implemented and that it requires more than just bullets to get rid of criminals,” he added.
Valencia has staked her campaign on law and order, promising a ‘mano dura’, or ‘iron fist’, against crime and armed groups in Colombia. Her politics follow those of her party’s founder, ex-president Álvaro Uribe, who waged war on the FARC rebels from 2002 to 2010.
Today, Valencia told Caracol that she will not compromise on this: “I am an Uribista and I have my values and principles… Neither he [Oviedo] will change nor will I change.”
But Valencia said she remains open to running alongside Oviedo, with the two due to meet today to discuss a possible joint ticket. She is also considering four other possible running mates, according to Colombian newspaper El Tiempo, with her decision due by Friday.
Jaramillo argues the best move for Valencia is not to pick Oviedo, as he is legally bound to support her as they ran under the same list in the primaries.
He believes she should distance herself from Uribe – arguing Uribistas are more likely to back de la Espriella – and instead court the moderate vote by choosing a center-left candidate.
But Guzmán says that is unlikely: “She seems to be going in a different direction.”
Featured image description: Left to right: Iván Cepeda, Paloma Valencia, Abelardo de la Espriella.
Featured image credit: @PactoCol via X / @PalomaValenciaL via X / @ABDELAESPRIELLA via X
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