On Sunday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will compete in a closely contested presidential runoff with significant implications for Latin America and Brazil’s relationship with global actors.
Bolsonaro finished first in the first round of elections on October 4 with 47.03% of the vote, against Lula’s 45.16%, a difference of around 2.2 million votes. However, Lula has narrowed the gap in recent weeks.
Datafolha’s latest poll, published on October 23, has Bolsonaro polling at 47% and President Lula at 46%, a narrow gap that falls within the survey’s two-point margin of error.
In an interview with Latin America Reports, Edinho Silva, who worked on Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) campaign, framed the runoff not only as a choice between “two projects for the country,” but also as competing visions for international order.
“We are clearly facing a dispute between two visions of the world,” Silva said, describing U.S. President Donald Trump as “the fascist leader of the world.”
He criticized what he characterized as the White House’s wars, territorial occupations and treatment of immigrants.
“Lula represents a different project for the world, based on humanism, respect for people and nature, and in favor of a sustainable movement,” he added.
Silva also argued that Brazil’s natural resources should underpin technological development and domestic industry rather than primarily “serve U.S. interests,” considering the National Security Doctrine that shifted Washington’s foreign policy under Trump’s second administration.
“President Lula’s project is one of the greatest social inclusion projects in Brazilian history,” Silva added. “We want to use our natural wealth as a basis for developing our industry and generating quality jobs for our youth, rather than offering it to the Trump administration.”
Silva, who was recently elected as a federal deputy for the São Paulo district, also referred to what his party sees as U.S. interference in Brazil’s domestic affairs.
In September, 31 Democratic members of the U.S. Congress led by Delia Ramirez from Illinois sent a letter to Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, accusing the Trump administration of interfering in Brazil’s election, citing tariffs, sanctions and pressure on Brazilian institutions.
Silva also accused Flávio Bolsonaro’s political project of being linked to militias and the legacy of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a prison sentence following his conviction for attempting a coup in 2023.
He cited the COVID-19 pandemic, which killed more than 700,000 people in Brazil; and the Banco Master corruption scandal, an investigation into an alleged multibillion-dollar financial fraud involving the failed Brazilian lender and transactions with the state-owned Bank of Brasília.
“Both candidates represent two different countries,” Silva concluded.
For his part, the younger Bolsonaro has run on a platform of slashing government and promoting private industry; strong-arm security, including building mega prisons á la Nayib Bukele in El Salvador; and investing in energy development and critical minerals extraction.
Although he’s cast himself as a defender of the environment, Bolsonaro has provided little policy insight as to how he will handle Brazil’s Amazon rainforest, the largest in the world, which had been heavily deforested under his father’s administration from 2019 to 2023.
Both Lula and Bolsonaro will hold their final campaign events on Saturday, focusing on the country’s contested southeast.
Lula plans to hold rallies in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, including his final and traditional march along Avenida Paulista, while Flávio is expected to campaign in Belo Horizonte before closing his campaign in Rio.
On Sunday, Lula will vote in São Bernardo do Campo, where he began his political career, before following the results in São Paulo. Bolsonaro will vote in Rio de Janeiro and travel to Brasília to monitor the count as he did in the first round.
Featured image description: Flavio Bolsonoro (L) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (R).
Featured image credit: @FlavioBolsonaro and @LulaOficial via X.
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